The Q1 2026 Irish Steel Report, prepared by economist Jim Power in association with Irish
Steel, paints a challenging but nuanced picture of the environment facing Ireland’s steel
sector.

The Big Picture: Uncertainty Is the Defining Theme
The opening message of the report is clear — the global trading and geopolitical order is
experiencing an unprecedented level of volatility. From US tariff policy to ongoing tensions
in Ukraine and the Middle East, the ripple effects are being felt across supply chains
worldwide, and steel is no exception.
Global crude steel production fell by around 2% in 2025, with output declining in China,
Japan, Germany, and Russia. India was the notable exception, growing output by over 10%
— a trend that looks set to continue as the Indian government pursues ambitious expansion
targets through the end of the decade.
For buyers and contractors, the practical effect of all this is price unpredictability and
tightening supply, particularly in certain product categories. We cover the specifics below.

EU Import Rules: The Change That Could Reshape Costs
Perhaps the most significant development flagged in the report is the proposed overhaul of
EU steel import safeguards. The current safeguard measure expires in June 2026, and the
proposed replacement regulation could have serious implications for the Irish market
specifically.
The key proposals include:
– A reduction of nearly 50% in tariff-free import quotas
– A doubling of out-of-quota duties, potentially rising to 50%
– A new “melt and pour” country of origin rule, expected to take effect from October 2026

Ireland is in a uniquely exposed position. Unlike Germany, France, or Spain, Ireland has no
domestic steelmaking capacity and no large-scale re-rolling mills. Our market is almost
entirely supplied through imports — from EU stockholders, the UK (now a third country
post-Brexit), and directly from Turkey, India, and Asia. Any squeeze on import volumes hits
Ireland disproportionately hard.
Irish Steel has made a strong submission on this point, warning that if the measures are
implemented without special provisions for small import-dependent markets like Ireland, the
consequences could include material shortages, significant price inflation, and extended
lead times. Fixed-price contracts — across housing, public infrastructure, and commercial
construction — would come under serious pressure.

What this means for project planning: If you have projects tendering or commencing in
the second half of 2026, it is worth factoring in potential material cost movements and
discussing procurement timelines with your supply chain early.

The UK Market Is Moving Too
A market update from All Steels Trading (February 2026), included in the report, confirms
that the UK is facing similar pressure. EU and UK mill price increases have already been
implemented across merchant bar, hollow sections, and structural sections. Turkish import
quotas in the UK were exhausted at the start of January 2026, meaning newly arrived
material is now sitting in bond awaiting the next quota window.
The UK Trade Remedies Authority is also considering replacing its own safeguard regime —
with similar proposed reductions in quota volumes and increases in out-of-quota duties.
In short, both the Irish and UK markets face a tightening supply environment through the
remainder of 2026.

CBAM: Now Live and Affecting Costs
The EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) moved into its definitive phase on
1st January 2026. This means importers of steel and other carbon-intensive goods from
outside the EU must now hold and surrender CBAM certificates — a real financial cost, not
just a reporting obligation.
For the supply chain, this adds upward pressure to the cost of non-EU sourced material. It
also means that anyone importing more than 50 tonnes of CBAM goods per year needs to
be an authorised CBAM declarant, with applications due before 31st March 2026.
Increasingly, sustainability reporting is becoming a commercial requirement rather than a
voluntary exercise. Larger clients — particularly multinational construction firms, data centre
operators, and infrastructure developers — are required to report on the full carbon footprint
of their supply chains. That means they will be looking to suppliers like us for verified
emissions data.
This is something we are actively preparing for, and we are happy to discuss what it means
for your projects.

Construction Activity in Ireland: Solid but Housing Still Short
Construction output grew by 13.2% in the first three quarters of 2025, with non-residential
and civil engineering the standout performers, up 26.6% and 16.8% respectively. Residential
output dipped slightly overall, though it recovered strongly through the middle of the year.
Housing delivery remains a structural challenge. Around 24,000 new homes were completed
in the first nine months of 2025 — less than half of what Ireland needs annually to address
the backlog. The barriers are well known: infrastructure constraints, planning delays, and a
shortage of serviced land. This demand pressure is not going away and will continue to
underpin activity in the residential construction sector for years to come.

Sources: Irish Steel Q1 2026 Report (Jim Power Economics, March 2026); All Steels Trading
UK Market Update (February 2026)

Irish Steel Report 2026 – Q1 (V1)